Selection Matters More Than Market Direction
For the week ending 10 August 2026, the most important signal was not a new launch weekend. It was the Berlayar Drive GLS tender, where replacement-cost expectations moved higher even as buyers and resale outcomes became more selective.
Berlayar Drive Resets The RCR Land Benchmark
The 99-year Berlayar Drive site drew a sole bid from a Hong Leong Holdings and GuocoLand joint venture at S$576.78 million, or S$1,515 psf ppr. The site is expected to yield about 415 homes and sits roughly 330m from Telok Blangah MRT.
That land rate is 14.3% above the S$1,326 psf ppr achieved for the first Berlayar site, and it exceeds the S$1,455 psf ppr RCR record set by a Tanjong Rhu site earlier this year. Market estimates cited by Business Times suggest eventual launch pricing could start around S$2,900 psf and average around S$3,100 psf.
The key advisory point is relative value. If future RCR projects increasingly approach S$3,000 psf, selected existing CCR projects deserve a more serious comparison. The question becomes: at this price, should the buyer simply consider prime?
Resale Losses Are A Warning Signal, Not A Market Collapse
The proportion of private residential resale transactions completed at a loss rose to 4.7% in Q2 2026, from 3.7% in Q1. That is the highest proportion since Q2 2022.
This does not mean Singapore private property is broadly losing money. URA recorded 3,813 resale transactions in Q2, up from 3,225 in Q1, while overall private prices still rose 0.5% during the quarter. The issue is dispersion.
A four-bedroom unit at The Orchard Residences sold for S$8.3 million but generated a loss exceeding S$1.68 million versus its 2011 purchase price. The lesson is straightforward: location helps, but entry price, product relevance and future buyer pool matter.
CCR Versus RCR Is Becoming More Interesting
Official Q2 figures showed overall private prices rising 0.5%, with CCR non-landed prices up 1.8%, RCR non-landed prices down 1.2%, and OCR non-landed prices down 0.1%. CCR rents rose 1.2%, while RCR rents were flat and OCR rents declined 0.3%.
This does not prove CCR is permanently stronger. Launch mix, transaction mix and individual project quality still matter. But combined with Berlayar's land price, the CCR/RCR comparison is no longer as simple as many buyers assume.
Policy And Supply Are Reshaping Seller Behaviour
The removal of the 15-month HDB wait-out period for private owners buying non-subsidised resale flats creates an easier exit path for empty nesters, retirees, asset-rich owners and families wanting to right-size.
At the same time, URA confirmed 4,745 private homes under the 2H2026 Confirmed List, bringing 2026 Confirmed List supply to 9,320 units, more than 50% above the previous 10-year annual average. Around 60,600 private residential units, including ECs, are expected to complete over the coming years.
More supply means more choice. It does not automatically mean cheaper launches, especially where developers continue to pay aggressive land prices.
Project Watchlist
- Dunearn House: still the dominant recent new-launch benchmark, with 208 caveats lodged as at data downloaded on 5 August and an average launch price around S$3,140 psf.
- One Marina Gardens: six caveated transactions were recorded during the fortnight ended 5 August, making continued sales velocity more relevant than launch-weekend headlines.
- UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard: a 22 July developer sale reached S$7.97 million, or S$3,877 psf, setting a new project psf high.
- Berlayar / Greater Southern Waterfront: not an immediate launch, but now one of the most important future RCR price benchmarks to track.
Client Conversation For The Week
The current market looks selective rather than euphoric or weak. Dunearn House showed buyers will pay above S$3,000 psf for a compelling prime product, resale losses show weak asset selection can still hurt, and Berlayar attracted only one bid despite setting a record RCR land rate.
The main message for clients: 2026 is becoming a market where selection matters more than direction. The data no longer supports treating Singapore property as one homogeneous investment category.